Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Mon Feb 03 14:55:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I plan to be pretty equivocal in my coverage tonight. I think all 3 measures—first alignment, final alignment, and state delegate equivalents (SDEs)—have a decent claim to validity. The rest of the media may emphasize SDEs since that's the traditional way of counting though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, we do not try to simulate the final step that Iowa takes, which is to convert the vote after realignment into something called state delegate equivalents. This last step is likely to help candidates who are strong in rural areas and could hurt Warren and possibly Bernie. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing to keep in mind is that realigment helps all of the candidates who are comfortably above 15% to boost their margins. If Sanders or Biden initially get say 23% of the vote, they could wind up with ~27% or something after second choices join them. https://t.co/F0Gq3cIBFY — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated