Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked May 21, 2020

Created

Thu Jan 23 16:57:30 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance: —Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren —Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16 —Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model says there's a 15% chance that there is *no pledged delegate majority* as of June 6 when voting finishes. That's NOT the same thing as a contested convention, though. Dirty little secret: Even pledged delegates aren't actually legally bound to vote for anyone! ^^^ https://t.co/dKIUWrHx2c — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Separately, here are the most likely scenarios *after the first 4 states*; which/how many candidates remain viable.… https://t.co/HNL8SE7qzg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated