Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Thu Jan 23 17:00:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Separately, here are the most likely scenarios *after the first 4 states*; which/how many candidates remain viable.… https://t.co/HNL8SE7qzg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance: —Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren —Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16 —Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These charts contain a longer list of these scenarios. For as much "fun" as it might be to speculate about more complicated scenarios, a majority of the time we wind up with Biden + Sanders and/or Warren. https://t.co/u3PThLXvf7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated