Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Thu Jan 23 16:54:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model says there's a 15% chance that there is *no pledged delegate majority* as of June 6 when voting finishes. That's NOT the same thing as a contested convention, though. Dirty little secret: Even pledged delegates aren't actually legally bound to vote for anyone! ^^^ https://t.co/dKIUWrHx2c — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What are the chances of a BrOkErEd CoNvEnTiOn*? * More accurately described as a "contested convention". https://t.co/fpGdDgNKCU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, I think our model may overestimate the chance candidates drop out and therefore UNDERESTIMATE the contested convention chance: —Establishment candidates might stay in to stymie Sanders/Warren —Sanders might want to run the whole race as in '16 —Bloomberg ↑ = chaos ↑ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 23, 2020 Hibernated