Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2020

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Thu Dec 26 19:55:17 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More seriously, in contrast to earlier research, we do find fundraising has some predictive power in the primaries. About as much as endorsements, probably. This may reflect a change in the landscape. One of the things that's made me a bit more optimistic about Bernie's chances. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More recent contributions will be weighted more heavily, so if you want to help your favorite candidate in the 538 model donate now, LOL. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think this theory is a liiiiiiiittle under-evidenced since there haven't really been major economic shocks under either Trump or Obama to test how approval ratings changed. — PolitiTweet.org

Both Obama and Trump's presidencies suggest that presidential approval is decoupling from economic performance: https://t.co/Z0PNnULzxy

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated