Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2020

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Thu Dec 26 20:36:17 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think this theory is a liiiiiiiittle under-evidenced since there haven't really been major economic shocks under either Trump or Obama to test how approval ratings changed. — PolitiTweet.org

Both Obama and Trump's presidencies suggest that presidential approval is decoupling from economic performance: https://t.co/Z0PNnULzxy

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More seriously, in contrast to earlier research, we do find fundraising has some predictive power in the primaries. About as much as endorsements, probably. This may reflect a change in the landscape. One of the things that's made me a bit more optimistic about Bernie's chances. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is to say, the economy has consistently been pretty good under Trump. And it was consistently mediocre but recovering at an OK pace under Obama (except at the very start of his term, but voters probably weren't blaming him for the previous recession). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated