Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Thu Dec 19 17:33:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't mean to suggest that impeachment will have *no* impact. But: 1) The effects will likely be hard to tease out; 2) Trump creates an awful lot of news so voters have a lot to weigh aside from impeachment; 3) It's not clear what baseline we're comparing against. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean... one thing that will *probably* be true is that people looking back on the 2020 election in hindsight will attribute more significance to impeachment than it actually had on the outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

1) Trump is disgraced and loses reelection, after which everyone draws the worst possible lessons and resolves to e… https://t.co/TEZSkpmDOf

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By 3) I mean it's not as though impeachment was some exogenous shock that came out of nowhere. Nobody should really be surprised by Trump's behavior. No one should be surprised that Republicans defended him. No one should be surprised that the D base pressured Pelosi to impeach. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated