Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Thu Dec 19 17:26:08 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean... one thing that will *probably* be true is that people looking back on the 2020 election in hindsight will attribute more significance to impeachment than it actually had on the outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

1) Trump is disgraced and loses reelection, after which everyone draws the worst possible lessons and resolves to e… https://t.co/TEZSkpmDOf

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I forgot how late the Santorum surge came in Iowa in 2012. It was really, really last-minute: he went from 7.7% in the RCP average on Dec. 27 to winning the caucuses (after a dispute over the vote count) on Jan. 3. https://t.co/vOU6OjWGqu — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't mean to suggest that impeachment will have *no* impact. But: 1) The effects will likely be hard to tease out; 2) Trump creates an awful lot of news so voters have a lot to weigh aside from impeachment; 3) It's not clear what baseline we're comparing against. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated