Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Thu Dec 19 17:33:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By 3) I mean it's not as though impeachment was some exogenous shock that came out of nowhere. Nobody should really be surprised by Trump's behavior. No one should be surprised that Republicans defended him. No one should be surprised that the D base pressured Pelosi to impeach. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't mean to suggest that impeachment will have *no* impact. But: 1) The effects will likely be hard to tease out; 2) Trump creates an awful lot of news so voters have a lot to weigh aside from impeachment; 3) It's not clear what baseline we're comparing against. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So it all feels quite *inevitable* at least from the moment Ds won the House. If you were projecting paths from Nov. '18 on, this one—Trump is impeached (not removed) along partisan lines on somewhat narrow grounds related to abuses of power—would almost be the median/modal case. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated