Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Thu Dec 12 22:26:36 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So it's not beyond reproach. It can certainly be outweighed by other things in any given election. And defining "extreme" is a challenge. But overall, many hypothesis people *believe* to be true about politics are probably 2s or 3s on the evidence scale. So a 6 or 7 isn't bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is "no evidence whatsoever" and 10 is "extremely robust empirical and theoretical evidence across multiple regimes to the point where it's an immutable iron law of politics", the evidence for "extreme parties fare worse" is like a 6. Maybe a 7. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean, he played his hand well, but it's not really *that* clever. He just trusted polls showing that Corbyn was extremely unpopular and calculated that Remain support would be more divided than Leave as a result. — PolitiTweet.org

If the exit polls hold, Boris Johnson comes through looking like the most effective machiavellian in the contemporary West.

Posted Dec. 12, 2019 Hibernated