Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Thu Dec 12 22:16:53 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are about a billion complications, and every election has its host of one-off contingencies. But there is reasonably robust evidence that, over the long run, parties & candidates that are perceived as more "extreme" tend to fare worse electorally, other things held equal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also there are like 15 typos in that table which is what happens when I'm going on 4 hours of sleep. But we've found it's more robust empirically to use a blend of different metrics rather than to just focus on endorsements, for example. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is "no evidence whatsoever" and 10 is "extremely robust empirical and theoretical evidence across multiple regimes to the point where it's an immutable iron law of politics", the evidence for "extreme parties fare worse" is like a 6. Maybe a 7. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2019 Hibernated