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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 22:50:59 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bernie's chances can be improving even if he isn't moving up in the polls much (he probably has moved up by a point or two, though maybe not more than that). It's more than there's *nothing standing in way of his winning* given where the other candidates are now. — PolitiTweet.org

Derek Thompson @DKThomp

The “wait, Bernie Sanders could actually win this thing!” narrative is: a) 100% right on the merits b) weirdly sp… https://t.co/cfGGFtxRCT

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I spend a lot of time every cycle on constructing empirically and theoretically sound fat-tailed probability distributions in our models, even though I doubt anyone will really give us credit if we correctly distinguish a 2% chance from an 0.2% chance and the 2% chance hits. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What would block Bernie's path? —If he were far enough behind the nat'l frontrunner (Biden) that even an IA/NH bounce might not catch him up. —If he were way behind in IA. —If he were way behind another candidate (e.g. Warren) in his "lane". NONE of these are true right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated