Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 22:50:59 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What would block Bernie's path? —If he were far enough behind the nat'l frontrunner (Biden) that even an IA/NH bounce might not catch him up. —If he were way behind in IA. —If he were way behind another candidate (e.g. Warren) in his "lane". NONE of these are true right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bernie's chances can be improving even if he isn't moving up in the polls much (he probably has moved up by a point or two, though maybe not more than that). It's more than there's *nothing standing in way of his winning* given where the other candidates are now. — PolitiTweet.org

The “wait, Bernie Sanders could actually win this thing!” narrative is: a) 100% right on the merits b) weirdly sp… https://t.co/cfGGFtxRCT

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's actually not so small. There are hundreds of primary results since 1980, which is enough to empirically measure the shape of the probability distribution. Also, there are theoretical reasons to use fat-tailed distributions in cases of low n's. — PolitiTweet.org

The data set in terms of results is so small that is zero way to prove if this holds up or just provides more abili… https://t.co/0O6Zxzr70i

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated