Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 22:36:03 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I spend a lot of time every cycle on constructing empirically and theoretically sound fat-tailed probability distributions in our models, even though I doubt anyone will really give us credit if we correctly distinguish a 2% chance from an 0.2% chance and the 2% chance hits. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol @SteveKornacki @SeanTrende Meanwhile, Buttigieg himself isn't quite putting the issue front and center, especially now that he's going for a older, more moderate slice of the electorate. And the media, sensing all this, doesn't talk about much it at all, though there's a lot of subtext one can detect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bernie's chances can be improving even if he isn't moving up in the polls much (he probably has moved up by a point or two, though maybe not more than that). It's more than there's *nothing standing in way of his winning* given where the other candidates are now. — PolitiTweet.org

The “wait, Bernie Sanders could actually win this thing!” narrative is: a) 100% right on the merits b) weirdly sp… https://t.co/cfGGFtxRCT

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated