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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 30, 2020

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Fri Nov 29 18:08:29 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Home states of recent presidents: 45. NY (not a swing state) 44. IL ( " ") 43. TX (not a swing state during GWB's term) 42. AR (sort of a swing state when Clinton was POTUS, but not a traditional one) 41. TX again 40. CA (actually was a swing state once but still...) — PolitiTweet.org

Mike Murphy @murphymike

Yes, but they are not so representative of much of the Electoral College, which is the key big whammy. https://t.co/w0uRlygr9g

Posted Nov. 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol Clearly the ads have *some* effect but it's a lot closer to zero than to Ryan's implication that it's been the major factor behind the polling movement in Iowa. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a somewhat random aside, the best metric I've been able to find for how urban or rural a given state/community is—i.e. what tends to best correlate with political outcomes where urbanization is a factor—is this: How many people live within 5 miles of you? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 29, 2019 Hibernated