Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Fri Nov 29 19:34:52 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a somewhat random aside, the best metric I've been able to find for how urban or rural a given state/community is—i.e. what tends to best correlate with political outcomes where urbanization is a factor—is this: How many people live within 5 miles of you? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Home states of recent presidents: 45. NY (not a swing state) 44. IL ( " ") 43. TX (not a swing state during GWB's term) 42. AR (sort of a swing state when Clinton was POTUS, but not a traditional one) 41. TX again 40. CA (actually was a swing state once but still...) — PolitiTweet.org

Yes, but they are not so representative of much of the Electoral College, which is the key big whammy. https://t.co/w0uRlygr9g

Posted Nov. 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you calculate this number for each person (well, each Census Tract) in the state, take the natural logarithm, then average them together (weighed based on the Census Tract's population), you can come up with a nifty "urbanization index" that looks like this. https://t.co/UfOAX2uomb — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 29, 2019 Hibernated