Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 00:51:42 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First, home state effects are *much* larger in smaller states. So Bernie might outperform his national polls by 30-35 points in Vermont or something like that. But Kamala Harris might only expect to do so by ~5 points in California, or something on that order. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Been studying home state effects in the primaries. As a blanket rule of thumb, candidates outperform their in their home states in presidential primaries by ~20 points, which is a pretty large effect obviously, but there are a couple of big caveats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Second, the effects are highly nonlinear. If you're stuck near 0-1% in national polls, being in your home state isn't going to get you very far. Maybe you'll get 3% or 5% or 10% instead of 1%. But it's not going to get you to 30% or something. You need to have a pulse nationally. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated