Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 00:54:06 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Second, the effects are highly nonlinear. If you're stuck near 0-1% in national polls, being in your home state isn't going to get you very far. Maybe you'll get 3% or 5% or 10% instead of 1%. But it's not going to get you to 30% or something. You need to have a pulse nationally. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First, home state effects are *much* larger in smaller states. So Bernie might outperform his national polls by 30-35 points in Vermont or something like that. But Kamala Harris might only expect to do so by ~5 points in California, or something on that order. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @mattyglesias I've gotten into this fight with folks before and the issue is that if you set a model that is deliberately conservative to reduce noise, you wind up in the uncanny valley where your polling aveage isn't quite predictive but also isn't quite descriptive of what polls say today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated