Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked April 26, 2020

Created

Wed Nov 27 00:51:41 +0000 2019

Likes

275

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Been studying home state effects in the primaries. As a blanket rule of thumb, candidates outperform their in their home states in presidential primaries by ~20 points, which is a pretty large effect obviously, but there are a couple of big caveats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias Let's just say I've spent a *lot* of time on this problem. ;-) And I'm pretty sure we have things *roughly* right and our numbers look a *bit* more aggressive than yours. Our method is actually not far from being a blend of an RCP-style average and a polynomial trendline. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First, home state effects are *much* larger in smaller states. So Bernie might outperform his national polls by 30-35 points in Vermont or something like that. But Kamala Harris might only expect to do so by ~5 points in California, or something on that order. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated