Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Tue Nov 26 23:47:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias Let's just say I've spent a *lot* of time on this problem. ;-) And I'm pretty sure we have things *roughly* right and our numbers look a *bit* more aggressive than yours. Our method is actually not far from being a blend of an RCP-style average and a polynomial trendline. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias ...by which I mean, sometimes you get a bunch of polls all at once and sometimes you have sparse polling. You need to figure out how to weight polls and what to do with tracking polls. And then there's a question of whether the x-axis should be linear or based on news events... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Been studying home state effects in the primaries. As a blanket rule of thumb, candidates outperform their in their home states in presidential primaries by ~20 points, which is a pretty large effect obviously, but there are a couple of big caveats. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated