Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Tue Nov 26 21:28:09 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It does appear that most of Warren's erosion on this question is from moderates. https://t.co/yncKPdgv05 — PolitiTweet.org

% saying Warren has "best policy ideas" Among moderates: Oct 13: 35 Oct 21: 28 Nov 25: 13 Among Independents:… https://t.co/Pm9ZvBbfw4

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@willwilkinson @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias You can test what best predicts the next poll or set of polls; I feel pretty strongly that this is the "correct" way to do it, FWIW. For many polling series (e.g. NH primary polls) you can also test what best predicts the result. Generally speaking, these give similar answers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattGrossmann @mattyglesias Yeah, Bernie *has* been spending some ad $ in early states and the timing's worked out well. We're at a point in the campaign where even an extra 1-2 points in polls (ads probably not worth *more* than that) can move you up a position in IA/NH, which helps with perception, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated