Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Tue Nov 26 21:24:28 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@willwilkinson @gelliottmorris @mattyglesias You can test what best predicts the next poll or set of polls; I feel pretty strongly that this is the "correct" way to do it, FWIW. For many polling series (e.g. NH primary polls) you can also test what best predicts the result. Generally speaking, these give similar answers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, states *without* the national trend adjustment. IA: Buttigieg 21.5—Sanders 18.1—Biden 17.4—Warren 16.3 NH: Sanders 17.2—Warren 17.1—Biden 16.8—Buttigieg 14.4 NV: Biden 27.8—Warren 19.3—Sanders 18.7—Buttigieg 6.8 SC: Biden 37.6—Warren 12.9—Sanders 12.4—Buttigieg 5.0 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It does appear that most of Warren's erosion on this question is from moderates. https://t.co/yncKPdgv05 — PolitiTweet.org

% saying Warren has "best policy ideas" Among moderates: Oct 13: 35 Oct 21: 28 Nov 25: 13 Among Independents:… https://t.co/Pm9ZvBbfw4

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated