Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 24, 2020

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Tue Nov 26 17:12:00 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Gonna get myself in a little trouble here but empirically (i.e. to predict the polling average going forward) the RCP average is too aggressive and the Economist average is too conservative. Bernie has significantly closed the gap with Warren but probably not quite caught her... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DavMicRot @joshtpm That's simply not true. If you aggregate across a number of studies, markets perform slightly worse in some studies, slightly better in others, which is pathetic given that poll aggregators are free and publicly available—empirically, the markets add no value whatsoever. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It could suggest a lot of things. A few plausible theories: 1) The hearings confirmed what the public already expected about the case since the quid-pro-quo was clear early on (e.g. in the White House-released "transcript"), so people don't need to update their priors much. — PolitiTweet.org

These numbers haven’t really moved since the hearings began, which suggests the public is taking cues from politica… https://t.co/sJqS60S6F6

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated