Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 24, 2020

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Tue Nov 26 17:09:10 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DavMicRot @joshtpm That's simply not true. If you aggregate across a number of studies, markets perform slightly worse in some studies, slightly better in others, which is pathetic given that poll aggregators are free and publicly available—empirically, the markets add no value whatsoever. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, I think prediction markets are basically competitive mansplaining. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Gonna get myself in a little trouble here but empirically (i.e. to predict the polling average going forward) the RCP average is too aggressive and the Economist average is too conservative. Bernie has significantly closed the gap with Warren but probably not quite caught her... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated