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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 24, 2020

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Tue Nov 26 19:11:05 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It could suggest a lot of things. A few plausible theories: 1) The hearings confirmed what the public already expected about the case since the quid-pro-quo was clear early on (e.g. in the White House-released "transcript"), so people don't need to update their priors much. — PolitiTweet.org

Zach Carter @zachdcarter

These numbers haven’t really moved since the hearings began, which suggests the public is taking cues from politica… https://t.co/sJqS60S6F6

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Gonna get myself in a little trouble here but empirically (i.e. to predict the polling average going forward) the RCP average is too aggressive and the Economist average is too conservative. Bernie has significantly closed the gap with Warren but probably not quite caught her... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) The hearings have offsetting effects. Some voters become more convinced of Trump's guilt. Other voters don't like Congressional Democrats and think it looks partisan. These shifts roughly cancel out. 3) Only the behavior of political leaders matters, not the details. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated