Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 24, 2020

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Tue Nov 26 01:41:41 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something like Buttigieg wins Iowa but not by a whole lot, Warren or Sanders win NH but not by a whole lot, Biden finishes a "respectable" 2nd or 3rd in both states; I'd happily take that if I were Biden and move on to NV/SC/Super Tuesday. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's unlikely that the current roughly ~4 way tie in Iowa and New Hampshire holds. Someone will probably break through sooner or later. But if that outcome were to occur—if things unfolded exactly in the messy scenario polls show right now —that would be a pretty good for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

How fluid is the 2020 race? Recent polls show a real possibility that Biden comes in fourth place in both Iowa and… https://t.co/yWdLkfQl2r

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden has really avoided the scenarios that would be *most* threatening to him. 1. Neither Harris, Booker or anyone else has gained much traction among black voters. 2. The rising candidate in the moderate "lane" (Pete) doesn't have a lot of demographic overlap with his voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 26, 2019 Hibernated