Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Sun Nov 17 22:15:53 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are you seen as an underdog/surprise winner? (e.g. did you beat your polls?) Are there mitigating factors? (From a neighboring state? Then your win might be discounted.) How big is your margin? What's the media narrative over the course of the night? All that stuff matters, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a rough approximation, the bounce is fairly well-predicted by how much better a candidate does in Iowa than in her national polls. e.g. a candidate polling at 10 percent nationally, who wins Iowa with 30%... she's gonna get a bounce. But that's just a rough approximation. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you held Iowa *today*, Buttigieg would potentially stand to get a big bounce…although expectations for Buttigieg are rapidly increasing, which could mitigate the bounce. You see how this stuff is circular? There's likely something real to the notion of "peaking too soon". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated