Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Sun Nov 17 22:24:22 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you held Iowa *today*, Buttigieg would potentially stand to get a big bounce…although expectations for Buttigieg are rapidly increasing, which could mitigate the bounce. You see how this stuff is circular? There's likely something real to the notion of "peaking too soon". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are you seen as an underdog/surprise winner? (e.g. did you beat your polls?) Are there mitigating factors? (From a neighboring state? Then your win might be discounted.) How big is your margin? What's the media narrative over the course of the night? All that stuff matters, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As for Biden, Warren and Sanders, limping to victory with say, 21% of the vote in IA might not get them much of a bounce since expectations are reasonably high in each case. An emphatic win would help. But finishing in the low teens would hurt. There's more downside than upside. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated