Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Sun Nov 17 22:15:53 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a rough approximation, the bounce is fairly well-predicted by how much better a candidate does in Iowa than in her national polls. e.g. a candidate polling at 10 percent nationally, who wins Iowa with 30%... she's gonna get a bounce. But that's just a rough approximation. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Iowa's effect on the polls is a lot more complicated than people think. There's not a one-size-fits-all bounce from winning the state. Sometimes the bounce is enormous. Sometimes it's NEGATIVE. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are you seen as an underdog/surprise winner? (e.g. did you beat your polls?) Are there mitigating factors? (From a neighboring state? Then your win might be discounted.) How big is your margin? What's the media narrative over the course of the night? All that stuff matters, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated