Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Sun Nov 17 22:15:52 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Iowa's effect on the polls is a lot more complicated than people think. There's not a one-size-fits-all bounce from winning the state. Sometimes the bounce is enormous. Sometimes it's NEGATIVE. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Early returns on how Warren is handling the scrutiny phase are somewhat mixed, although her surge was quite robust (lasting over many months) so my prior is she'll keep most of her gains. Buttigieg Surge 2.0 means a Buttigieg scrutiny cycle 2.0 is coming soon with results TBD. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a rough approximation, the bounce is fairly well-predicted by how much better a candidate does in Iowa than in her national polls. e.g. a candidate polling at 10 percent nationally, who wins Iowa with 30%... she's gonna get a bounce. But that's just a rough approximation. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2019 Hibernated