Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 7, 2020

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Wed Oct 23 14:07:24 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We'll soon (finally) be publishing our new pollster ratings and from working with the data it's clear that there's a lot of herding going on. Specifically, some crappy pollsters tend to copy off good pollsters and perform a lot worse when there aren't good polls in the field. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Never mind PREDICTION, i.e. what will happen in the future. It will never cease to amaze you how often the media narrative about polling fails to match what's happening RIGHT NOW in front of your eyes, if you just look at a polling average for yourself. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Fortunately, this is not that hard to detect. So polls that depend on herding for their accuracy will see that reflected in the new version of their ratings. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2019 Hibernated