Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 26, 2020

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Wed Oct 09 21:33:44 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel So, if you actually want to be empirical about this, momentum generally doesn't predict much in polling. e.g. if a candidate goes from 30 percent at Period A to 27 percent at Period B, the best guess is that he'll still be at 27 percent at Period C, ie the polls are a random walk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel Also, there have been a couple of times when Biden's numbers improved, e.g. he bounced back after the first debate. So while his numbers could worsen, they could also improve. It's just quite strange to talk about him in the past tense. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel Now, there are plausible stories where Warren's numbers have been growing because she's always done well with highly-info voters, and those voters were leading indicators. But Biden ALSO polls well with highly-info voters. (The candidate who struggles with them is Bernie.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated