Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 26, 2020

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Wed Oct 09 21:34:59 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel Now, there are plausible stories where Warren's numbers have been growing because she's always done well with highly-info voters, and those voters were leading indicators. But Biden ALSO polls well with highly-info voters. (The candidate who struggles with them is Bernie.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel So, if you actually want to be empirical about this, momentum generally doesn't predict much in polling. e.g. if a candidate goes from 30 percent at Period A to 27 percent at Period B, the best guess is that he'll still be at 27 percent at Period C, ie the polls are a random walk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Fox News does good, nonpartisan, unbiased polling, so there's no reason to expect their numbers on impeachment to be different than the other good polls, but can still imagine this one is going to cause a wee bit of anxiety in the White House. — PolitiTweet.org

Do you think President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or not? Yes 51% (+9 since July) No 43% (… https://t.co/3OCSi7BRpI

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated