Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 26, 2020

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Wed Oct 09 21:27:43 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel Also, there have been a couple of times when Biden's numbers improved, e.g. he bounced back after the first debate. So while his numbers could worsen, they could also improve. It's just quite strange to talk about him in the past tense. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel I disagree. 27% (roughly where he is now) is still plenty enough to win a bunch of the early states if the opposition remains divided and then gain enough thereafter. It's pretty close to where Trump's standing was at this point four years ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson @daveweigel So, if you actually want to be empirical about this, momentum generally doesn't predict much in polling. e.g. if a candidate goes from 30 percent at Period A to 27 percent at Period B, the best guess is that he'll still be at 27 percent at Period C, ie the polls are a random walk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2019 Hibernated