Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 26, 2020

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Sun Sep 29 15:50:55 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Anyway, that's the literal sense in which i think of Republicans as "having a weak hand" on Trump/Ukraine. It's not like Mueller where the GOP had just enough going for them to run a few bluffs, occasionally trap their opponents, etc. No. They have a *very* weak hand, e.g. 7♣2❤️ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The key to the analogy is the longer you play (imagine you have to play 100 pots with 7♣2❤️ and similarly weak hands), the worse your problems tend to become. As a one-off, it's not *that* bad (if you mostly play strong hands) but over repeated trials, your strategy falls apart. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 29, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's more, they have to play this hand over and over again, on every Sunday AM talk show, in every Congressional hearing, etc. And they can't really fold it without conceding that Trump should be impeached. No predictions on what happens next, but it's a really bad position. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 29, 2019 Hibernated