Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 18:09:13 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn It's confusing because "it is not a prediction" doesn't make any sense in this context. There's no reason to view a president's approval rating as of 2018 through the prism of the Electoral College *except* to make a prediction about 2020. The midterms don't use the EC obviously. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn But you're *still* missing my point, which is that tipping point analysis requires very high precision data provide meaningful insight. There are many applications for which low precision data could be fine. This isn't one of them. You're using an anvil when you need a hammer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn tbh a lot of times when people say "it's not a prediction" it means it *is* a prediction but not one they want to be held accountable for if it turns out to look bad later on. Not saying I've never tried to pull that trick but we both know it's trying to have it both ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated