Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 18:16:23 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn tbh a lot of times when people say "it's not a prediction" it means it *is* a prediction but not one they want to be held accountable for if it turns out to look bad later on. Not saying I've never tried to pull that trick but we both know it's trying to have it both ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn It's confusing because "it is not a prediction" doesn't make any sense in this context. There's no reason to view a president's approval rating as of 2018 through the prism of the Electoral College *except* to make a prediction about 2020. The midterms don't use the EC obviously. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn And if, hypothetically, Biden wins and his margin in the tipping point state ~= the national popular vote, would it be fair for an observer to point at your analysis as having been wrongheaded? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated