Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 17:28:10 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn But you're *still* missing my point, which is that tipping point analysis requires very high precision data provide meaningful insight. There are many applications for which low precision data could be fine. This isn't one of them. You're using an anvil when you need a hammer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Well if you want to be empirical about it the president's approval rating at the midterm (which is the data you're using) historically has almost no correlation with the election outcome 2 years later. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn It's confusing because "it is not a prediction" doesn't make any sense in this context. There's no reason to view a president's approval rating as of 2018 through the prism of the Electoral College *except* to make a prediction about 2020. The midterms don't use the EC obviously. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated