Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Sat Jul 20 16:19:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or even slightly more. That's basically what he did in 2016. (He won WI, the tipping-point state, with ~1 point to spare.) But I'm skeptical that he'd be the favorite. — PolitiTweet.org

fwiw I’d lean yes. https://t.co/5L1NY1vjjO

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Conditional on Democrats winning the popular vote by 3 points, would you bet on Trump winning the Electoral College? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason is that I see this as being a fairly dynamic process. To be honest this is sort of my critique of the @Redistrict/@Nate_Cohn Electoral College analysis; I think they focus on a more static, modal outcome rather than the range of plausible outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated