Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Sat Jul 20 16:19:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason is that I see this as being a fairly dynamic process. To be honest this is sort of my critique of the @Redistrict/@Nate_Cohn Electoral College analysis; I think they focus on a more static, modal outcome rather than the range of plausible outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or even slightly more. That's basically what he did in 2016. (He won WI, the tipping-point state, with ~1 point to spare.) But I'm skeptical that he'd be the favorite. — PolitiTweet.org

fwiw I’d lean yes. https://t.co/5L1NY1vjjO

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Obama-era coalition was fairly favorable to Democrats in the Electoral College. Obama would likely have WON an Election in 2008 or 2012 in which the popular vote was very close. This wasn't that long ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated