Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Fri Jul 19 19:47:48 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Conditional on Democrats winning the popular vote by 3 points, would you bet on Trump winning the Electoral College? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn There are a lot of ways to impute uncontested results and a lot of them are pretty bad. And if you're doing that, you probably also ought to adjust for incumbency, which generally hurt the D's in swing states since they were running against mostly GOP incumbents. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or even slightly more. That's basically what he did in 2016. (He won WI, the tipping-point state, with ~1 point to spare.) But I'm skeptical that he'd be the favorite. — PolitiTweet.org

fwiw I’d lean yes. https://t.co/5L1NY1vjjO

Posted July 20, 2019 Hibernated