Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Fri Jul 19 19:02:48 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

History would say you should have a loose prior toward it being smaller since the Electoral College advantage is historically not very durable, e.g. it benefited Democrats as recently as 2012. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The basic notion that Trump has an Electoral College advantage seems right, he obviously did in 2016, but I'm pretty skeptical that we can say much right now about whether it will be larger, smaller or nonexistent in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also you need to look at things probabilistically. If there are several states that look like the potential tipping point state, that's a lot more robust for Democrats than if they have just one path to 270, especially if those states are unique from one another demographically. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated