Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Fri Jul 19 19:10:33 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also you need to look at things probabilistically. If there are several states that look like the potential tipping point state, that's a lot more robust for Democrats than if they have just one path to 270, especially if those states are unique from one another demographically. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

History would say you should have a loose prior toward it being smaller since the Electoral College advantage is historically not very durable, e.g. it benefited Democrats as recently as 2012. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The fact that the results of people *actually voting* in the 2018 midterms implies a rather different takeaway than 2018 polls suggests this line of analysis is not super robust though. — PolitiTweet.org

As I emphasize in the final section: '2018 isn't destiny.' There are many ways for this to change. But we can talk… https://t.co/R9Uti9x0iG

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated