Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Fri Jul 19 19:02:48 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The basic notion that Trump has an Electoral College advantage seems right, he obviously did in 2016, but I'm pretty skeptical that we can say much right now about whether it will be larger, smaller or nonexistent in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ElGee35 @BenCAlamar I mean, we're still working on the framework! It's definitely true that opponents' FG% is fairly noisy, whereas the number of shots defended is pretty stable (and also a pretty useful metric unto itself). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

History would say you should have a loose prior toward it being smaller since the Electoral College advantage is historically not very durable, e.g. it benefited Democrats as recently as 2012. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated