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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Tue May 28 01:48:54 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Ray Fair model that @nytopinion highlights as an example of forecasting prescience was actually off by *10* points. It had Trump winning the popular vote by 8 points and he lost by 2. About twice as bad as the ~5-point polling error in Wisconsin. — PolitiTweet.org

Scott Lemieux @LemieuxLGM

But they have a model that got within *8 points* of correctly predicting the 2016 presidential election! I hardly t… https://t.co/YdaeJb5GAh

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The ones that use economic data as a prior, and blend it with polling data, do OK and seem to add some value. But the ones based on economy/"fundamentals" alone range from mediocre for the best ones to bordering on junk science for the worst ones. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Number of Democrats that turned out for the presidential election, per exit polls: 2000: 41.1 million 2004: 45.2 milion 2008: 51.2 million 2012: 49.1 million 2016: 49.2 million — PolitiTweet.org

Jon Favreau @jonfavs

Trump’s surest path to victory in 2020 will be the same as it was in 2016: depress Democratic turnout. He’ll hit th… https://t.co/LQurOSEO7T

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated