Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Tue May 28 02:34:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Number of Democrats that turned out for the presidential election, per exit polls: 2000: 41.1 million 2004: 45.2 milion 2008: 51.2 million 2012: 49.1 million 2016: 49.2 million — PolitiTweet.org

Trump’s surest path to victory in 2020 will be the same as it was in 2016: depress Democratic turnout. He’ll hit th… https://t.co/LQurOSEO7T

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Ray Fair model that @nytopinion highlights as an example of forecasting prescience was actually off by *10* points. It had Trump winning the popular vote by 8 points and he lost by 2. About twice as bad as the ~5-point polling error in Wisconsin. — PolitiTweet.org

But they have a model that got within *8 points* of correctly predicting the 2016 presidential election! I hardly t… https://t.co/YdaeJb5GAh

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure that data tells a super clear story, and it doesn't adjust for population growth. But it is, at the very least, not obvious that Trump depressed Democratic turnout, which was reasonably high in 2016 by historical norms. (And **VERY** high in 2018, FWIW.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated