Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Mon May 27 19:00:33 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The ones that use economic data as a prior, and blend it with polling data, do OK and seem to add some value. But the ones based on economy/"fundamentals" alone range from mediocre for the best ones to bordering on junk science for the worst ones. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of smart people don't seem to realize these economic models pretty much suck at predicting elections. They do well when backtested but they're overfit/p-hacked and empirically have done a terrible job of actually predicting elections out of sample. https://t.co/J03pb2u3GU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Ray Fair model that @nytopinion highlights as an example of forecasting prescience was actually off by *10* points. It had Trump winning the popular vote by 8 points and he lost by 2. About twice as bad as the ~5-point polling error in Wisconsin. — PolitiTweet.org

But they have a model that got within *8 points* of correctly predicting the 2016 presidential election! I hardly t… https://t.co/YdaeJb5GAh

Posted May 28, 2019 Hibernated