Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

Created

Mon May 27 18:57:20 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of smart people don't seem to realize these economic models pretty much suck at predicting elections. They do well when backtested but they're overfit/p-hacked and empirically have done a terrible job of actually predicting elections out of sample. https://t.co/J03pb2u3GU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of osmart people don't seem to realize that these economic forecasting models pretty much suck at predicting elections. Most of them are badly overfit/p-hacked and fit past data well but do terribly at actually making predictions out-of-sample. https://t.co/cOFlOXPypE — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The ones that use economic data as a prior, and blend it with polling data, do OK and seem to add some value. But the ones based on economy/"fundamentals" alone range from mediocre for the best ones to bordering on junk science for the worst ones. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 27, 2019 Hibernated