Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 12, 2019

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Wed Apr 10 16:30:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @DKarol I don't think, if you'd have laid out your priors ahead of time and your theory were right, that you'd have expected there to be anywhere near as large a shift in public opinion against AOC as there has been so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol @mattyglesias I don't know. Not very many non-scandals shift public opinion by as much as the Amazon thing did for AOC. So even if it fades, it could still have a material impact. And it's relevant to all kinds of local discussions about development in NYC, which occur perpetually. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @DKarol She's gone from being VERY popular in NY-14 to having numbers that are well below-average for a member of Congress in a deeply partisan district. She *probably* won't lose a primary challenge but the risk has increased from (IDK?) 5% (?) to 20% (??) I'd guess. That's huge. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated