
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @DKarol She's gone from being VERY popular in NY-14 to having numbers that are well below-average for a member of Congress in a deeply partisan district. She *probably* won't lose a primary challenge but the risk has increased from (IDK?) 5% (?) to 20% (??) I'd guess. That's huge. — PolitiTweet.org